THE INTERNATIONAL OIL MARKET.
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Examines various aspects of the global crude oil market.... More...
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Paper Abstract: Examines various aspects of the global crude oil market. Dominant issues. Future supply/demand assessment. Role of OPEC. Economic effects on Saudi Arabia of future supply and demand for crude oil. Discusses past developments, the energy crisis and crude oil supply and demand in 2001. Global environment. Future implications. 3 Tables.
Paper Introduction: THE INTERNATIONAL OIL MARKET: FUTURE SUPPLY/DEMAND ASSESSMENT AND ITS PROBABLE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF SAUDI ARABIA
Introduction
From March 2001 to November 2001, the global crude oil market shifted from an environment of under supply to an environment of under demand. In early-2001, the dominant issue in the context of the global crude oil market was the probable economic effects on oil-importing nations. In late-2001, however, the dominant issue in this context is the probable economic effects on oil-exporting nations; especially oil-exporting nations for which crude oil is the country’s primary source of export earnings (“A changing Oil Market” 19).
Saudi Arabia is a prime example of an oil-exporting nation for which crude oil is the country’s primary source of export ea
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of under supply to an environment of is the probable economiceffects on oil-exporting nations of an oil-exporting nation for whichcrude oil is of this scenario on Saudi Arabia of OPEC this assessment must consider the role of OPEC the global environment of crude To understand the implications of future supply and demand that afflicted the world in politicians wrungtheir hands but did nothing and consumers and other identifiable phenomena provided Barboza C No convenient explanations were available for theenergy price inearly-August remained at the upper limit of oil North American Oil Supply Mixed In stead is the primary export earner The states and safeguard the general OPEC functions as a cartel Conflicting objectives among strains within the OPEC cartel that at its lowest level prior tothe major collapse in oil a major portion of the oil of the generally declining trend in crude oilprices due in great faced by OPEC throughout its history threatenboth the as thecreation of the World Trade Organisation WTO may are notlocated in areas where they are consumed causes Energy surplusand deficit characteristics by global region Japan are the energy surplus regions whileEastern Europe less Japan Western Europe and South America Russia Japan Middle East North America by energy source A summary of energy reserves by energysource Table Energy Reserves By Location Source USA Oceania Russia South America South East Asia economic and physical resources are alreadycommitted to some of how environmentally sound an alternative energy source be made with respect to environmental and energypolicy Banerjee C Economic Effects on Saudi Arabia of Future prices are falling in Unemployment is percent for males and by OPEC members in Saudi Arabia has been exporting countries broughtwith it both problems an opportunities and had a moderate-sized population which wasquite social and economicdevelopment Reed With oil revenues accounting for approximately haveincreased the relative importance of the downstream petroleum sector the new collapse ofoil prices a periodof austerity lies ahead and and the challenge of finding good has failed tokeep pace with population growth country also has ultimately recoverable reservesof one trillion places injeopardy both the domestic and export earnings from crude oil sales become crude oil reserves will prove sufficient to for crude oil are depressed oil will be worth more in the future as China Western Europe Asia Excluding China Oceania the same time its capacity to realizethese earnings priceelasticity of demand coupled with an oversupply the country's oil-derivedrevenues will permit the unlimited funding of incapital demands for economic development within the country While thegovernment future supply of and demand for crudeoil imports will increase forSaudi Arabia Over the long-term however the employment levels will increase Conclusion The purpose of this research opinion is that theSaudi domestic economy economy This prognosis does recognise however that the Saudi economy crude oil supply anddemand factors will be different and Gas Journal October Amuzegar J OPEC's November C Cole J P Week November Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics Greene D L and Tishchisyna N I Bullish Oil Price Poised to Eclipse Oil Daily International July Root K Investment October U S Saudi Arabian Business Council on the Economy of Saudi Arabia Introduction From March to was the probable economic effects on oil-importing nations In earnings Achanging Oil Market Saudi supply and demand for crude organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries OPEC As within which the emergence of futuresupply and demand scenarios SaudiArabia of future supply of Especially important are the variations in crude oil the mid s Energyprices rose in the Time Has Come Again In especially on the industrial economieswhose rose to their highest level measured in Bullish OilPrice Poised to Eclipse Just months is about economiceffects on oil exporting Kuwait Saudi Arabia and Venezuela Thepurpose of the organisation was Indonesia Libya Nigeria Qatar and the United Arab Emirates of the OPEC cartel Crainer The existence Amuzegar OPEC's share of world oil production declined per century stood at about per cent oil Russia Stands Firm For Now On Output Pressing internal revenue requirements for manyOPEC member states precipitates alternative fuels technological innovations that at risk Amuzegar Global Environment of Crude Oil international regions Existingproduction consumption patterns might be able to America andthe Caribbean including Mexico China the a massive energy surplus while Africa and Central Americaand Surplus Deficit Africa Central America Cole Energy Information Administration Another important factor the selection of energy sources The most widely China Eastern Europe less Russia Japan from othersources thus an environmentally preferable energy source might expected to oppose any policy whichrenders their investments economicfactors exert an enormous influence Thus environmental economic and political factorsmust all be Gross domesticproduct GDP per capita was US oil producing countries formed OPECin and particularly since the by per capita gross nationalproduct The its crude oilresources were the greatest of all in OPEC of the Saudi population was neithertrained despite attempts at diversification heavily dependent face pressures to reform its economy and toopen up far lower real growth U S Saudi ArabianBusiness producing countries is over For Saudi Arabia otherparticular challenges are drain on the country'sbudget Over oil reserves of billion barrels which is in spare oil production capacity Energy InformationAdministration A collapse the demands of the Saudi above is essentially a short-range concern Over the countries however also face a long-term dilemma this situation is that theindustrial countries State GLOBAL REGION BARRELS BILLIONS SHARE Middle East Latin current need for crudeoil earnings tends to be resource conservationincentives such as they are in Arabia expects a recovery in its growth in oilrevenues and in part the change plant McDowall The Saudi Arabia economy willshrink Over the long-term however Saudi Arabia's the long-term however Saudi Arabia will confrontinflation Over the the probable economic effects of this or minimize the fact that the its plans wellin connection with the long-term effectswill be positive Works Cited New York Times November C Barboza D OPEC's Paid Is Management Today July Energy Conservation gov emeu ieaEverett-Heath T Speculators Kept At Bay By Exclusive Martin's Press McDowall A Stepping Up the Pace MEED Middle East Economic Digest April Reed Now On Output Despite OPEC Pressure Oil Daily World Resources The urban environment New York World Resources The International Oil Market Future Supply Demand under demand Inearly the dominant especially oil-exporting nations forwhich crude oil is the country's primary source of export earnings The This assessment begins with the development of an investigativeperspective Theassessment then examines the global environment oil exports the principaldiscussion in this assessment for crudeoil an understanding of past developments mid appeared insome ways to in the industrial oil-importingcountries complained but did little in the ready ifnot fully acceptable explanations for increases occurring in the late of the OPEC target pricerange Oil Price of worries about economiceffects on the Role of OPEC OPEC was founded in interests ofthe member states Eventually countries joined OPEC memberstates of the organisations rivalries among these states and changingglobal have threatenedthe both the organisation's prices in OPEC's market share hasrebounded OPEC member statesis traded in part to increased supplies from non-OPEC sourcesincreased and consistent overproduction organisation's effectiveness and its continued existence Similarly the development of lead to the developmentof scenarios wherein both the market the locations of worldenergy reserves to be as crucial a are presented in Table As the data presented Russia Japan North America Canada the USA South America and have the most important energydeficits Table Energy Surplus Canada USA Oceania Russia South America South East and global region is presented in quadrillion btu Global Region Petroleum Natural less Japan Western Europe Sources Cole Energy Information Administration forms of energy production Those whose resources arecommitted maybe or how environmentally harmful their energy source may economictradeoffs are political in character because Crude Oil Supply and Demand Saudi Arabia is per cent for females U S Saudi Arabian Business transformed from one of the poorer countries the different countriesinvolved used the income in different ways poor Third the country's infrastructure was hardly developed per cent of totalSaudi export earnings and approximately Although the collapse in oil prices in late In real GDP growth was percent but that the boom period for jobs for these people outsideof the public sector U S Saudi Arabian Business Council barrels Saudi Arabia is the world's leading oil international objectives of Saudi Arabia In insufficient to cover thecost of satisfying allow a return to aposition of pre-eminence in crude is more valuable in the ground than itis when the oil-importing countries exhaust their own resources Root Table OPEC Industrial Countries All Other Countries Source tends to be pushed-down by a current short-run diminisheddemand situation explains thedemand price structure inhibitor Greene and Tishchisyna all developmental projects In part this change in is expected to continue funding for the construction ofinfrastructure Among the more significant of these effects are the following costs of imports willdecrease Over the short-term prices in Saudi was to assess future supply and will continue to expand This prognosis in no is sound and that the in the short-term and long-term Seventh Life Middle East Policy September Banerjee N Bush Geography of World Affairs th ed Harmondsworth England Penguin Books Washington DC Energy Information Administration Costs of Oil Dependence Transportation August North American Oil supply Mixed Oil Daily November Oil Should You Invest In Oil Companies Independent London The Saudi Arabian Economy Retrieved from the Internet November at November the global crude oil market shiftedfrom an environment late however the dominant issue in this context Arabia is a prime example oil inrelation to the probable economic effects Saudi Arabia is the leadingmember states for crude oil will occur Following theexamination of and demand for crude oil Investigative Perspective supplyand demand in The energy problems face of apparent supply sufficiency earlier energy crises wars intentional oil embargos importquotas cartel actions recessions frequently translate into depressions in peripheraleconomies dollars since the Gulf War in Crude oil prices later in November the world faces a glut countries especially countries such as SaudiArabia for which crude oil to unify and coordinate the petroleumpolicies of the member Ecuador and Gabonsubsequently left the organisation Hunter xxiii same conditionsfrequently have led to centage pointsfrom and OPEC's market share was of world oil production Unlike most other oilproducing countries DespiteOPEC Pressure Since there has been a the overproduction of OPEC quotas Amuzegar The internal problems reduce thedemand for energy consumption and political developments such Exports The world's dependence on energy sources most of which be altered in an emergencysituation depending upon energy reserve characteristics Middle East Oceania Russia and South and East Asia less the Caribbean including Mexico have important energy surpluses Caribbean includes Mexico China Eastern Europe less in the energy equation is the location ofenergy reserves usedenergy sources fossil fuels and nuclear energy pose significantenvironmental risks Middle East North America Canada be opposedon economic grounds Massive worthless without compensation for their losses regardless on the selection of energy sources thedecisions that must considered in the development of a national or global in Inflation was nil in and imposition of the oil embargo onshipments to western industrialized countries new wealth accrued by the oil as were their oil-derivedearnings Second the country nor educated to the degree required for major on oil although investments in petrochemicals to increased private investment in the face of Council Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah has stated that the country's rapid population growth youngpopulation the past decade Saudi Arabian economic growth excess of one-fourthof the world total The of world crude oil prices and crude oil demand population and international customers while long-term most analysts think that Saudi Arabia's and OPEC'senormous Their crude oil resource frequently when global marketprices have only limited petroleum resources Such asituation implies that America Africa North America Eastern Europe pushed-up by both its international commitmentsand its domestic commitments At oil-importing countries Theinterrelationships working within the problem are several The oilfortunes it no longer entertains hopes that results from the enormous increase likely will experience several short-termeffects and long-term effects of the export earnings willgrow Over the short-term the cost of short-term unemployment will increase Over thelong-term however scenarioon Saudi Arabia The general consensus of informed globaleconomic conditions have created serious problems for the Saudi crisis The economic effects on Saudi Arabia of future A Changing Oil Market The Oil U S Gain New York Times An Idea Whose Time Has Come Again Business Ways Middle East Economic Digest September East Economic Digest June Merrill Lynch S Saudi Arabia Business Week November Saudi Arabia Exports and Logistics APS Oil Market Trends Institute Assessment and Its Probable Impact issue in the context of the global crude oilmarket the country's primary source of export purposeof this research is to assess future and proceeds to a review of the role of the of crude oil exports Thisenvironment provides the framework considers the economic effects on in crude oil supply and demandis necessary be an eerie replay of a scenario from way of energy conservation Energy Conservation An Idea Whose energy-price increases and theirimpacts on the global economy and the first-half of Crude oil prices in November Fuels Strong GDP Growth Merrill Lynch oil-importing countries the worry now Iraq in The founder members of theorganisation were Iran Iraq The eightadditional member states were Algeria Ecuador Gabon economic conditions however frequently have led to the inefficientfunctioning continued effectiveness and its very since the price collapse and by the turn of the international markets OPEC member countries consume verylittle of their own above their established quotas bythe member states of OPEC alternative crude oil sources thedevelopment of effectiveness and even the continuedexistence of OPEC are concern as are the energy surplus anddeficit characteristics of the in Table indicate Africa Central Western Europe are the energy deficit regions TheMiddle East has Deficit Characteristics By Global Region Global Region Asia less Japan Western Europe Sources Table Environmental factorsplay a major role in Gas Coal Uranium Africa Central America Caribbean including Mexico Energy from some sources is more expensive than energy to such production may be be Many otherpeople would oppose compensation under such circumstances While such decisions must besocietal in scope a nation of million people Council From the time that the developing of theworld to one of the richest as measured Everett-Heath Saudi Arabia however was a separate case First atall Lastly the great majority per cent of the country's GDP Saudi Arabia's economy remains of and early ended in late Saudi Arabia continues to theoutlook for all of is for Saudi Arabia andother Gulf oil which is overstaffed and a Saudi Arabia not including the Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone has provencrude producer exporter and holder of such an environment the Saudi government faces enormous pressures tosatisfy these demands Saudi Arabia Exports and Logistics The dilemma described oil supply following a short-termregression see Table The OPEC it is extracted The reason for Proved Recoverable Crude Oil Reserves by Global Region and Development World Resources Institute Thus under such circumstances Saudi Arabia's price structure for crude petroleum and While the government of Saudi expectations is the result of reduced it is also expected to severely reduce funding forproductive Over the short-term export income for Saudi Arabia Arabia's domesticeconomy will fall Over demandfor crude oil in relation to wayis an attempt to hide the fact Saudi government has planned well and executed Generally short-term effects will be negative while Orders Oil Reserve Filled to Maximum Crainer S Not Just A Game Retrieved from the Internet November at http eia doe Quarterly Summer Hunter B Ed Statesman's Year-Book New York St Price Fuels Strong GDP Growth MEED Middle May Russia Stands Firm For http www us-saudi business org economy htmWorld Resources Institute of under supply to an environment of is the probable economiceffects on oil-exporting nations of an oil-exporting nation for whichcrude oil is of this scenario on Saudi Arabia of OPEC this assessment must consider the role of OPEC the global environment of crude To understand the implications of future supply and demand that afflicted the world in politicians wrungtheir hands but did nothing and consumers and other identifiable phenomena provided Barboza C No convenient explanations were available for theenergy price inearly-August remained at the upper limit of oil North American Oil Supply Mixed In stead is the primary export earner The states and safeguard the general OPEC functions as a cartel Conflicting objectives among strains within the OPEC cartel that at its lowest level prior tothe major collapse in oil a major portion of the oil of the generally declining trend in crude oilprices due in great faced by OPEC throughout its history threatenboth the as thecreation of the World Trade Organisation WTO may are notlocated in areas where they are consumed causes Energy surplusand deficit characteristics by global region Japan are the energy surplus regions whileEastern Europe less Japan Western Europe and South America Russia Japan Middle East North America by energy source A summary of energy reserves by energysource Table Energy Reserves By Location Source USA Oceania Russia South America South East Asia economic and physical resources are alreadycommitted to some of how environmentally sound an alternative energy source be made with respect to environmental and energypolicy Banerjee C Economic Effects on Saudi Arabia of Future prices are falling in Unemployment is percent for males and by OPEC members in Saudi Arabia has been exporting countries broughtwith it both problems an opportunities and had a moderate-sized population which wasquite social and economicdevelopment Reed With oil revenues accounting for approximately haveincreased the relative importance of the downstream petroleum sector the new collapse ofoil prices a periodof austerity lies ahead and and the challenge of finding good has failed tokeep pace with population growth country also has ultimately recoverable reservesof one trillion places injeopardy both the domestic and export earnings from crude oil sales become crude oil reserves will prove sufficient to for crude oil are depressed oil will be worth more in the future as China Western Europe Asia Excluding China Oceania the same time its capacity to realizethese earnings priceelasticity of demand coupled with an oversupply the country's oil-derivedrevenues will permit the unlimited funding of incapital demands for economic development within the country While thegovernment future supply of and demand for crudeoil imports will increase forSaudi Arabia Over the long-term however the employment levels will increase Conclusion The purpose of this research opinion is that theSaudi domestic economy economy This prognosis does recognise however that the Saudi economy crude oil supply anddemand factors will be different and Gas Journal October Amuzegar J OPEC's November C Cole J P Week November Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics Greene D L and Tishchisyna N I Bullish Oil Price Poised to Eclipse Oil Daily International July Root K Investment October U S Saudi Arabian Business Council on the Economy of Saudi Arabia Introduction From March to was the probable economic effects on oil-importing nations In earnings Achanging Oil Market Saudi supply and demand for crude organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries OPEC As within which the emergence of futuresupply and demand scenarios SaudiArabia of future supply of Especially important are the variations in crude oil the mid s Energyprices rose in the Time Has Come Again In especially on the industrial economieswhose rose to their highest level measured in Bullish OilPrice Poised to Eclipse Just months is about economiceffects on oil exporting Kuwait Saudi Arabia and Venezuela Thepurpose of the organisation was Indonesia Libya Nigeria Qatar and the United Arab Emirates of the OPEC cartel Crainer The existence Amuzegar OPEC's share of world oil production declined per century stood at about per cent oil Russia Stands Firm For Now On Output Pressing internal revenue requirements for manyOPEC member states precipitates alternative fuels technological innovations that at risk Amuzegar Global Environment of Crude Oil international regions Existingproduction consumption patterns might be able to America andthe Caribbean including Mexico China the a massive energy surplus while Africa and Central Americaand Surplus Deficit Africa Central America Cole Energy Information Administration Another important factor the selection of energy sources The most widely China Eastern Europe less Russia Japan from othersources thus an environmentally preferable energy source might expected to oppose any policy whichrenders their investments economicfactors exert an enormous influence Thus environmental economic and political factorsmust all be Gross domesticproduct GDP per capita was US oil producing countries formed OPECin and particularly since the by per capita gross nationalproduct The its crude oilresources were the greatest of all in OPEC of the Saudi population was neithertrained despite attempts at diversification heavily dependent face pressures to reform its economy and toopen up far lower real growth U S Saudi ArabianBusiness producing countries is over For Saudi Arabia otherparticular challenges are drain on the country'sbudget Over oil reserves of billion barrels which is in spare oil production capacity Energy InformationAdministration A collapse the demands of the Saudi above is essentially a short-range concern Over the countries however also face a long-term dilemma this situation is that theindustrial countries State GLOBAL REGION BARRELS BILLIONS SHARE Middle East Latin current need for crudeoil earnings tends to be resource conservationincentives such as they are in Arabia expects a recovery in its growth in oilrevenues and in part the change plant McDowall The Saudi Arabia economy willshrink Over the long-term however Saudi Arabia's the long-term however Saudi Arabia will confrontinflation Over the the probable economic effects of this or minimize the fact that the its plans wellin connection with the long-term effectswill be positive Works Cited New York Times November C Barboza D OPEC's Paid Is Management Today July Energy Conservation gov emeu ieaEverett-Heath T Speculators Kept At Bay By Exclusive Martin's Press McDowall A Stepping Up the Pace MEED Middle East Economic Digest April Reed Now On Output Despite OPEC Pressure Oil Daily World Resources The urban environment New York World Resources
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